A New Era in Nuclear Arms Reduction
2.3.2025
“The risk for nuclear war is higher than any time since the end of the Cold War.”
That stark warning from Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, kicked off the discussion at the recent conference, “Nuclear Weapons and International Law 2025: Nuclear Risks through a Legal Lens,” which was organized by the New York State Bar Association and its International Section.
The annual event attracts the nation’s leading minds in government, science, the military and academia on the issue of nuclear arms proliferation, deterrence and the role of international law in dealing with the threat of nuclear warfare.
“We are at a critical juncture of our history. Policies developed in the next four years will impact the war in Ukraine and the growing proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East and China,” said New York State Bar Association President Domenick Napoletano in opening the conference. “As lawyers, we are committed to supporting international peace and security through the rule of law.”
The war in Ukraine was central to the discussion of the risk of nuclear warfare. Former Clinton-era Defense Secretary William Perry said the Russian invasion of Ukraine broke the two principles followed by world leaders that have kept peace in Europe since the end of World War II. They are – no invasion of another country to gain land and no threats of using nuclear weapons. Vladmir Putin has done both, Perry said in submitted remarks. At 97 years of age, Secretary Perry could not appear in person due to a health issue.
Former Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Ashley Ford echoed Perry’s concern that the greatest risk of nuclear war will come from a conventional conflict where one state wants to absorb the territory of its neighbors. “It comes from the current security environment who have made territorial aggression to the front of their agenda, “he said. “Using nuclear threats is a way to deter anyone to think about impeding their aggression.”
Shane Smith, a professor at the U.S. Air Force Academy, cautions that stopping regional conflicts among states with nuclear capabilities must also include the new battlefields of outer space and cyberspace.
“We will need to adapt to this new era of technology to be relevant in statecraft,” he said. “Effective arms control for the future will take our creative juices and resolve, and we have not grappled with what that will look like.”
Deterrence Through Diplomacy
As the discussion turned from risk assessment into action, most panelists agreed that the best path to deterrence is the use of diplomacy.
“President Trump said he wants to denuclearize and it’s a good sign,” Kimball said. “I think it’s possible for Trump and Putin to come to an agreement with the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) expiring next year.”
Jonathan Granoff, president of the Global Security Institute and a conference organizer, says effective diplomacy is the best weapon to achieve peace.
“We will see discussion between Trump and Putin on the issue of Ukraine and there will be opportunities to discuss the delicate nuclear relationship,” he said. “The rule of law and basic morality will reign in the threat of nuclear war – we need both to reign in this threat. “
You can watch the entire conference here on our YouTube channel.
